21
2008
The Indian government is in a crisis, and will soon face a test of confidence, the outcome of which is going to determine whether it remains in power. This is because the Congress party, which forms part of the ruling coalition, called the United Progressive Alliance, or the UPA, has decided to go ahead with the nuclear deal that it signed with America two years ago.
The deal, which was finalized between Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh and President George Bush during the latter's visit to India in March 2006, was seen as historic and unprecedented. But it drew as much criticism as praise, from both India and America.
In India, the ruling coalition's leftist allies, primarily the Communists, have been staunchly against the deal, denouncing it as intrusive "American Imperialism". They are vehemently against the idea, as they see it, of India tying its nuclear future to the U.S. After threatening for two years, they have finally pulled the rug from beneath the coalition party's feet, putting the government in a somewhat precarious position of proving their majority without the Left's support. The Left has even threatened the government with dire consequences, if the latter went ahead with the deal despite losing the trust vote.
So, the UPA faces a vote of confidence, which is to be held on the 22nd of July. Understandably, ever since the Left withdrew its support, the UPA has been out frantically looking for allies in other parties. It's found some unlikely friends in the Samjwadi Party, S.P. - the Socialist Party - which, in turn, is trying to convince its members to turn up for the vote and support the deal.
But though this immensely helps the UPA, it is not going to be enough to get them into the safety net; they still need to garner some more support, which, at first looked likely, but on the eve of the vote, the race has become so tight that a single vote could topple the government.In the U.S., the road has not been smooth either. Just as Dr. Singh had the unenviable task of convincing members of the ruling coalition as well as other Members of Parliament about the virtues of the deal, President Bush too had to answer many-a question from the U.S. Congress, which needed to give the go-ahead to the pact. The latter was sharply divided about the issue, its main concern, amongst others, being around India's refusal to sign the Nuclear-Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Still in 2006, Congress passed the Hyde Act, as the legislation was called. It requires, however, that the Congress be in continuous session for 30 days before it giving final approval to any deal. In this stop-and-go U.S. election year, it is not certain if the deal will get this final approval.
The issue has been polarizing in both countries, and in both places those who support as well as oppose the deal seem to have very good reasons for doing so.
Singh is betting his government's survival on this nuclear deal, which he insists is in India's best interest as it will end a thirty-year U.S. ban of sale of nuclear fuel to India, something the country, with its immense energy requirement, badly needs. But even before it can sign the deal, India has a lot of work to do. It must have an agreement with the IAEA - the International Atomic Energy Agency - and also get an approval from the Nuclear Suppliers Group, which consists of more than forty nations. Only then can the issue be brought before the U.S. Congress again.
But, first things first, the UPA must keep working on getting allies for the deal and, for its survival. The political drama in India, at the moment, is at it's peak - MPs being fought - read bought - over, carrots being dangled, and loyalties shifting - even as I write this.
The country now watches with bated breath as the media frenetically tracks the events. And the reason why this could be anyone's game, is because there are many Members of Parliament who have yet to make up their minds, or, as they put it, to make known their minds. Then there are those who agree with the deal but have criticized the government for its poor performance on the domestic front, mainly for the steep rise in inflation - at 11.42% it's a 13-year high - so even though they might think that the deal is good for the country, they are wondering if this is the right time to show their dissent.
Dr. Singh, on his part, along with his party, has been fighting tooth and nail for survival, generously doling out incentives, or granting any wish of undecided MPs. Yet, the UPA, needless to say, seems to be panicking, though not outwardly, because at this point one single vote can do the damage.
On paper they appear to have just about enough numbers, if, the crucial if, there are no last minute surprises and wild cards. My prediction is that they will scrape through, if only by a hair's breadth.